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World trade growth stagnated in Q1 amid the escalating trade war. While we expect some recovery in 2019, further escalation of the trade war could grind growth to a halt.
In 2019 Austrian economic growth is expected to decelerate after a robust performance in 2018, mainly due to weaker external demand and lower investment.
A potential downside risk to the economic performance could be the high household debt in case of sharp house price decreases and interest rate increases.
Household consumption is sustained by rising employment, higher wages and low interest rates, while lower financing costs support business investments.