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In 2019 and 2020 growth is expected to exceed 5%, supported by exchange rate liberalization, interest rate normalisation and increasing tourist arrivals.

The economy is currently forecast to expand by about 3.5% in 2020, however, this depends on decent performance in agriculture, tourism, and exports.

Slow reform progress and social tensions weigh on the medium-term outlook, while economic expansion remains heavily dependent on the security situation.

GDP growth is expected to recover only modestly as the oil fund is nearly depleted, and ongoing political uncertainty weighs on the economic performance.

Economic growth in Eastern Europe is projected to remain solid this year, despite losing steam mainly because of poor growth prospects for Turkey.

Economic growth in Romania is expected to slow down to around 3-3.1% this year, and to sink below 3% in 2020

Real GDP growth in Slovakia is forecast to remain strong – 3.3% – this year and to slow slightly down to 3.2% in 2020

Economic expansion in the Czech Republic is forecast to remain positive over the coming months, with an average growth rate of about 3% this year.

Real GDP growth in Poland is forecast to reach 4.4% this year, slowing down to 3.6% in 2020.

Financial conditions in Turkey will be tighter in the coming months.

Economic expansion in Bulgaria is expected to lose some momentum in 2019, but should remain strong at above 3%, spurred by robust household spending, strong wage growth and an improving labour market

Economic growth in Hungary gained momentum recently, with real GDP gains expected to reach 4.4% this year.

Iran continues to demonstrate economic resilience but prospects for integration into the world economy remain far off.

Argentina has introduced currency controls to stabilise peso in the run-up to elections.

The amount of suppliers facing insolvency will increase further in the coming 2-3 years, as many will find it hard to adapt to changing market conditions.

Many German Tier 2 suppliers face the issue that their products are easily substitutable, while their solvency and equity position is generally weak.

Any imposition of import tariffs on cars/car parts would severely impact suppliers in the Tier 2 segment where many businesses already show thin margins.

Small basic component parts producers often suffer from poor equity, while at the same time they face increasing difficulties obtaining bank finance.

While the automotive insolvency level has been low compared to other industries in the past, an increase of up to 3% is expected in the coming 12 months.

Suppliers active in the combustion engine parts and car metals segments are severely affected by deteriorating demand and a high level of competition.

US tariffs could severely impact Japanese suppliers of low value added/basic car parts, as OEMs could replace their products with tariff-free items.

Local-owned Tier 2 suppliers remain susceptible to commodity price changes and exchange rate volatility, with limited options to pass on higher prices.

Higher costs, reduced orders, price pressure and changes in the type of products demanded could put the finances of many smaller suppliers under stress.

Insolvencies are expected to increase by about 3% in the coming 12 months, mainly affecting car dealers, car part distributors and Tier 2 suppliers.

Larger suppliers could seize the opportunity of buying distressed smaller players in order to expand market share and bargaining power against OEMs.

Corporate insolvencies are on the rise globally due to the more challenging economic environment and high policy uncertainty.

Economic reforms are urgent, especially improving the governance in state-owned enterprises, as large contingent liabilities are of great concern.

Private sector debt developments in the US and China probably won’t trigger an economic crisis but could deepen a downturn, possibly triggered by the bilateral trade war.

Should the Sino-US trade dispute continue or even escalate, US petrochemical businesses would face unfriendly market conditions with falling prices.

The repercussions of the trade dispute with the US have been limited so far, but several US-export dependent SMEs could fail should the dispute continue.

Profitability of businesses is generally high in this sector, but Brexit poses a downside risk for businesses profitability and payment behaviour.

Due to the more difficult market environment and decreasing sales, we have recently downgraded the sector performance outlook from “Excellent” to “Good”.

Profitability of businesses is expected to deteriorate in the coming 12 months, due to lower demand from China and increased oil and naphtha prices.

Performance is affected by slowdown in demand from automotive, uncertainty about Italian fiscal policy and the trade dispute between the US and China.

The French plastics packaging segment is negatively impacted by oil price volatility, increased environmental awareness and stricter regulations.

The Brazilian agrichemicals sector remains very susceptible to sudden changes in climate conditions, market prices and exchange rate fluctuations.

In the medium- to long-term low-cost competitors from Asia and the Middle East could seriously challenge Singapore's export-oriented chemicals industry.

The plastics segment is impacted by environmental awareness and stricter regulations, which could negatively affect businesses in the near future.

The EU continues to buck the international protectionist trend, signing two historic trade agreements.

Although Mexico is well-positioned to withstand shocks, as its external finances remain strong, the country’s economic outlook is weakening.

Despite solid fundamentals, underpinned by persistently strong household and business confidence, clouds are developing over the U.S. economy.

The Brazilian economy is going through a significantly challenging phase, which is severely affecting business and consumer sentiment.

Trade credit risk worries businesses more than trade wars.

The Canadian economy continues to operate near its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced.

Despite healthy growth in many ICT segments, stiff competition is leading to low pricing and margin compression for distributors and retailers alike.

A major increase in insolvencies is not expected for the time being, but cannot be ruled out should the trade dispute with the US further escalate.

Despite the looming Brexit uncertainty, the UK technology sector attracted more venture capital investment in 2018 than any other European country.

Despite further sales growth most businesses continue to operate on very tight margins due to fierce competition, while equity strength is below average.

An economic slowdown in China triggered by the Sino-US trade dispute would surely lead to lower demand for ICT exports to China and to other parts of Asia.

The currently rather good situation for French ICT businesses could quickly worsen, due to the fast changing and very competitive market environment.